Is rapid Russian attack on Ukraine a blueprint for PLA’s Taiwan plans?
- Any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force would need a similar quick, targeted campaign, according to experts
- Crossing the Taiwan Strait would add extra difficulties, but PLA scenarios also rely on a rapid effort
There has been international speculation that Beijing could seize the opportunity to take the self-ruled island while the attention of the United States and Europe is on the Ukraine crisis.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has never ruled out using force, if necessary, to return it to the mainland fold.
The Russian “blitz” into Ukraine was also seen in 1968 when Soviet forces invaded Czechoslovakia to crush the “Prague Spring”, according to Shanghai-based commentator Shi Lao.
Any PLA attempt to take the self-ruled island by force would also have to be a very quick campaign, although the crossing of the Taiwan Strait – 100km (160 miles) at its narrowest point – would add extra difficulties.
In an article in 2018, retired PLA lieutenant general Wang Hongguang outlined a scenario for an operation against Taiwan based on a rapid and brief campaign.